When Did Cold War II Begin?

The case for 2006.

In the year 2014 Mikhail Gorbachev — an expert on the topic if there ever was one — spoke of a  "New Cold War."   Likely inspired by the pro-Western coup in Ukraine, he stated that Russia's new authoritarianism was necessary "to overcome the situation our former friends created." "You cannot trust the Americans." "It’s as if a time of great troubles has arrived."   "We have to stop this process.” No luck with that.

Now I have never been all that comfortable with historians choosing dates for big historical events. They happen gradually. In particular I never believed that World War I was caused by the assassination of an archduke. Everybody knew the war was coming. The old empires were being challenged by new would-be empires. All sorts of minor incidents were seized upon as affronts to the national honor. Sound familiar?

Today I’m going to join in with this dubious practice. I’m going to say that the second Cold War began in December of 2006. The scene was Sakhalin Island.

Now if you are like most people you have never heard of Sakhalin Island. It’s a long island located just north of Japan. It’s a desolate place exposed to Arctic blasts, all of rainy, snowy, and cold. Back in the old days it was populated mainly by the convicts in a Russian penal colony. Nevertheless it is one of the most fought over locations in the world, going at the least back to 1905 when Russia and Japan had a big war. When the bitter peace was negotiated¹ Sakhalin Island was perhaps the main issue of contention. They ended up with a Solomonic split into two halves. It was about fossil fuels. Sakhalin has a lot of it, something the rest of Japan hasn’t got. Even in 1905 this was recognized as a major prize. You need fossil fuels to make steel, you need steel to make war, and war was where Japan felt destined to go. In 1945 Russia did the jackal thing on Japan, rushing in once J had been beat. Russia had to give most of their cowardly gotten gains back but they held on to Sakhalin. It’s worth a lot.

Fast forward to December of 2006. Royal Dutch Shell had a big natural gas operation on Sakhalin Island. The government of Russia used phony environmental concerns to coerce them into selling a controlling interest at a shakedown price. Details here. I say that this was the opening shot of Cold War II.

It’s all about money. — Marnie Tynen

The West did not at all like getting big-bucks-shafted by Russia. There would be payback. NATO expansion, anyone?

Politically influenced contention over Sakhalin continues to this day. In 2022 Exxon Mobil abruptly abandoned its Sakhalin operation, all four billion dollars worth of it, citing moral issues. In 2023 Royal Dutch Shell finally and completely sold their remaining Sakhalin Island interest for a bit more than a billion dollars. It was worth more than that, perhaps far more, but under the circumstances that’s all they could get. But better than Exxon Mobil’s bupkis, eh?

A multi-billion dollar loss is not taken lightly. There will be payback. Again.

1. The negotiations were mediated by President Teddy Roosevelt, as the USA was indifferent to both Imperial Russia and Imperial Japan and so could be trusted to be fair.