So Russia mobilized, more than tripling its forces in Ukraine. But then nothing much happened. Huh? Why no major offensive? Executive summary: occupation of Ukraine would be ruinously expensive.
Some say that R is waiting for the weather to be perfect before they launch a big offensive. But there is a better explanation. Russia doesn't want to take over the rest of Ukraine. It would be a huge liability. Even before the war it was the poorest country in Europe. Now it is much worse. Not only that, the war has caused it to take on debts impossible to repay. It is a strange tradition that the conqueror assumes the debts of the conquered. Then there is the half trillion dollar rebuilding cost. Whew! But even if none of these things were true, occupying a big chunk of Ukraine would be a disaster. The hostile and violent population would be the source of an endless series of covert terrorist acts funded lavishly by the West. It would be a lot like the US occupation of Iraq but worse. So...it won't happen. Russia can't afford it. Not even close.
The US says its goal is "to weaken Russia." To this end, they should strive mightily to get Russia to conquer and occupy Ukraine. By golly, foreign policy bigshot John Mearsheimer has said this, almost word for word. [It's always nice to have confirmation from experts.]
So how can the US provoke Russia into conquering more territory? They are doing their best. The drone strike on the Kremlin was about as provocative as you can get. Then there was the very public declaration that they had screwed Russia in 2015 with the phony Minsk Accords. France and Germany formally and solemnly guaranteed the treaty, signed by the very hands of their respective heads of state. Now both have come out saying the whole thing was fake and that the true intent was to buy NATO time to build up the Ukrainian army for an attack on Russia. Since the West had never before engaged in such a blatant lie Russia was fooled. Well, that's one of those things that only works once. There will be no more trust whatsoever for a long, long time.
But that leaves a bigger mystery. The Russian government knew about these lies already. Why on Earth would the West go out of their way to rub their nose in it eight years later? This is the diplomatic equivalent of traveling to Red Square, dropping trou, and letting out a mighty gasser in the direction of the Kremlin. I say that the goal was to infuriate Russia, which they surely succeeded in doing. What good did this do? It was further provocation for that highly sought after Russian conquest of Ukraine.
I say that it won't work. Russia cannot afford to conquer Ukraine, almost no matter what. They are well aware of this. The satellite countries were a big drain on Russia, playing a major role in the bankruptcy of the USSR. This lesson learned at great cost will not be soon forgotten.
The upshot of all this is that the war can continue for quite some time. Ukraine is unable to end it and Russia is unwilling. NATO very much wants the war to go on. NATO is hoping that the Russians will become so enraged by the drone strikes, multi-billion dollar sabotage, blatant insults, and the assassination of a Moscow woman (ouch) that they will oust Putin and install a scary, threatening Stalin type who will frighten the bejeezus out of the EU.
I read that Ukraine still believes it can retake all that territory. But sooner or later they are going to run out of men. What happens then? As long as Russia doesn’t occupy all of Ukraine the war can continue at a low level, just like Kashmir.
Yes, the original plan was indeed for Ukraine to get swiftly conquered by Russia, but then turn into a quagmire, basically to replicate Afghanistan, which the US still believes was what caused the downfall of the Soviet state. With a massive drain to Russia internal stability and resources from fighting an internal guerrilla warfare, terrorist attacks, costs to run the country, corruption and so on it would have been decades of trouble. All of this has been very openly detailed by various Western Think Tanks and other elites since the 90.
What the US wants and is doing…. is turning Ukraine into a giant failed state like Libya. From which they and the warlords they prop up will continually set out terrorist attacks on Russia. These terrorists may even be used to whip up fear in Europe by threatening EUROPEAN states not falling in line with the U.S. That’s what the US have done in the Middle East Central America and Saharan Africa.
Then they will leave the mess in Europe’s lap to keep paying for.
However Europe has no leaders worthy of the name, who can see this and revisit enabling it, their own downfall. They only have lackeys there, no leaders, no statesmen.